Do not live now more than 8-10% for gold and silver: Marcellus’ Krishhnan VR explains why
Modified excerpts from cats:
What is your reading of the current market mood? Do investors underestimate the risk of valuation and earnings or optimism of excessive Discoation from GST, business agreement, etc.?
So far, we have seen this fiscal continuation of trends from the last few years. SIP Funds for the SIP Fund Last year are largely resistant to the background resistant relatively lukewarm aggregated increases in earnings, increased market valuation and drawing between September 2024 to February 2025. Some of the re -optimism about sustainable optimism, although the government seems to be ensured. Optimism, in some strengthened pages, in a certain disability, and it seems that it is in a certain justified authorization, in a certain authorization to the date, in some authorities in a certain official catering and in some reinforced optimisms and in some strengthened meals and monetanism. Exaggerative. On the other hand, there is a significant pessimism in the industries, such as this pessimism due to the negative flow of the news.
On a market where gold and silver make more noise than shares, should the investor think of asset between stocks, gold/silver and debt?
For most Indian investors, domestic stocks should still be the allocation of basic and more if someone was along the horizon, as the start of the award became less important during the wind. The tactically growing debt allocation is at this point as a good choice, due to the increased appreciation of its own capital. It is difficult to Ascriber the basic value for precious metals and since Booth has brought a record return in the last year, I would rather not add more 8-10% to gold and silver.
Which topics or industries do you think could bring excessive returns in the next 5 years? Did the GST 2.0 force you to change your view of specific sectors?
Consumption is ~ 60% of GDP. Given that mass consumption has fought partially due to lower wage growers and growing household debt over the past few years, a cash pair with lower taxes should be an increase in the mass consumption at least over shorts to medium -term. We estimate that through income and cuts from GST associated with lower interest rates, the government provided consumer stimul RS 4.6 Lakh Crores or ~ 1.3% of GDP, which is significant. Among other sectors, we like medical services where growing penetrations should be positive for similar hospitals, diagnostics and health insurance over the next 10-15 years. Companies in the field of insurance, RTA, deposits and wealth management offered attractive games on the structural trend of financing the household assembly. However, our investment representative remains an Agnotic sector.
What is your advice for investors sitting on cash and waiting for repair – patience or participation?
Investors should look for asset -class diversification if they have the risk tolerance or if they are close to their financial goals. For investors with longer horizons, it offers participation in its own capital and for increased awards the best opportunity to defeat inflation. If someone has invested in the last 5 years, then it is a suitable time to re -balance and tilt the portfolio more towards defensive assets.
Do you think that at this point there are awards in the middle and small capitalization, or there is still room for ups?
At this intersection, the exposure of the Index in small and Midcaps requires a certainty and a more selective approach to the bottom up is Warrarans, because the valuation in small and middle chapter indices appear both in absolute terms and their historical averages. However, it is equally important to generalize from aggregated awards, because in Smid Space you can still find well-operated, profitable and high-growth companies from a wide group of more than 700-800 shares. After the next 1-2 years, I think there is a significant scope for a significant return in Smids, if one attracts a more selective approach that realizes, focusing on corporate foundations, instruction of wide themes.
The car has seen a sharp rally sales 15. August notification of GST rationalization. How convenient are you with valuable means in automatic supplies afterwards? Do you think we are at the beginning of the Multi-Yéar automatic cycle?
Valuation in this industry after the recent rally has treated historical anger, and the market seems to be engaged in many Optimism from GST cuts. Sales The majority of companies have decided to pass a decline in tax to end customers, a particular agency in the agency is likely to reflect the higher demand, which is due, because wages with white collar and employment growth remain irregular. However, in the framework of two -wheeled and four -wheeled OEMs, as well as in the automatic space that could justify these premium awards in the long run in the long run, they are well -operated companies.
In the last few months, we have seen the suffered offer of new paper through selling initiates, promoters, PE/VC funds and now IPO. Can we blame the supplier pressure as one of the reasons for the insufficient performance of the Indian market?
Yes, to some extent. Over the past four years, we have seen how domestic investors (MF+ BFI+ retail) increase their share in companies with these companies, while FPI and promoters (including PE owners) sell. Over the last year, we have seen almost $ 70 billion in our own capital delivery compared to the ~ 55 billion USD to home MF. Unlike this background, the secondary sale of FPI in combination with increased awards in September-2024 and slowing the growth of earnings could explain some of the insufficient performance.
The market seems to be baked in chances to revive H2 earnings. Do you agree?
Yes, although I think H2 earnings from the consumer stimulus could be partially compensated by high triffs unless a trade agreement is announced. Most banks would be under the pressure of this fiscal reduction of repo races. In my opinion, there is a higher chance of recovering revenue growth in FY27 in FY27 across cars, banks, NBFC, telecommunications sectors.
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