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Gold in April touched the historic summit for $ 3,357 on an ounce that raised a burning question: Will Bitcoin follow? While investors are looking for hiding in the face of economic turbulence, some experts check the ties between the two workers. But is this correlation systematic, or does it hide more complicated reality? Immerse yourself in basic data and mechanisms.
In short
- Gold has reached a historical record for $ 357 per ounce.
- Bitcoin could follow, with an inconsistency observed from 100 to 150 days.
- Correlation depends on the economic context and the trust of investors.
- Some predict BTC to $ 400,000 by the end of 2025.
Bitcoins and Gold: Historical References and Predictive Models
In 2017, an increase of 30 % gold was preceded by an explosion of bitcoins to $ 19,120. Three years later, expensive metal reached $ 2,075 before BTC flourished to $ 69,000. These episodes indicate a recurring scheme: Bitcoin would respond with a period of 100 to 150 days after gold records.
Joe Consorti, an expert on The Wathe, summarizes: “When the quarrel is racing, gold feels the first inflation. Bitcoin follows, but with latency.” »
This mismatch would be explained by market psychology. The value of the golden, ancestors of refuge, first attracts capital at the time of the crisis.
Institutional investors, more cautious, then turn to bitcoins, perceived as digital gold. However, this sequence is not mechanical. In 2022, despite the resistant gold, Bitcoin dropped below $ 20,000, undermined by bankruptcy crypto and rates. Correlation therefore depends on the context.
The mathematical model, Power Law, adds an interesting layer. By normalizing the capitalization of bitcoins compared to gold, some provide a summit to $ 400,000 by the end of 2025.
Anonymous analyst, Apsk32, table even in the paroxysmal phase from July to November 2025. These projections, albeit speculative, rely on the previous cycles, where BTC systematically overcame gold after delay.
Macroeconomic context: uncertainty that weighs the situation
In addition to graphics, it reflects a duo or bitcoin deeper worries. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, evokes a “Minon Moment” for the US economy: instability where financial excess causes collapse.
The celebrated dollar, state debt of 35,000 billion and geopolitical tensions, pushes investors to tangible assets. In this landscape, Bitcoins act as a barometer of distrust of traditional systems.
However, dynamics differ. Gold benefits from timeless state, while bitcoins remain volatile, associated with technological and regulatory innovations.
In 2024, his course stagnated despite the increase in gold and recalled that its award also depends on institutional acceptance and ETF. Novogratz also emphasizes that markets underestimate economic risks that could intensify bruised BTC movements in the coming months.
The timing question remains. If the previous cycles indicate a delayed effect, trends may accelerate the current crisis convergence (inflation, energy transitions, American elections).
Bitcoin supporters consider this to be an opportunity: Bitcoin is not just a gold clone. It is a coverage against the collapse of trust. However, this vision assumes that global investors go through a psychological course by treating bitcoins as a reserve of legitimate value.
Finally, the relationship between gold and Bitcoin is less reflex than a mirror of economic fears. BTC follows gold … when macro conditions are lent to him. Its increase in potential depends on money policies as maturing as an active refuge. In the coming months, marked by political voltages and rates adjustment, it will be a decisive test. If Bitcoin exceeds its record 2021 after gold, correlations will gain credibility. Otherwise, he will have to push his independence – a key step towards conquering the “gold 2.0” state.
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Evariste, fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, has not stopped documenting on this topic. If his first interest focused on trading, he now tries to actively understand all cryptocurrency progress. As an editor, he tries to permanently provide high quality work that reflects the condition of the sector as a whole.
Renunciation
The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.